The Next Engine: Beyond Campaign Thinking

All politics aside, Karl Rove understands marketing the politicians themselves. In a good article in the Washington Post today, he writes about the fading importance of television advertising: (I’ve bolded some of his points)

“Television ads don’t matter as much as they used to. Going on the air with the earliest and most ads doesn’t count for nearly as much as it once did. Campaigning this time has been so intense, long and geared toward retail politics that people — especially in the early states — form opinions that are difficult to alter by early and voluminous advertising. Mr. Romney, who spent $2.4 million on TV ads in Iowa beginning last February, found that out.

Voters are discounting advertising. They may be blocking out ads, relying more on personal exposure, information from social networks, alternative information sources like talk radio and the Internet, and local media coverage. By Feb. 5, when it costs $16 million to burn one television spot in every state that’s voting, it’s simply too expensive to be on air everywhere at once.”

He goes on to write:

“The 20th century’s closing decades saw the rise of the TV ad man as the most potent operator in presidential campaigns. The 21st century’s opening decade is seeing the rise of the communications director and press spokesman as the more important figures on a campaign staff. It is the age of the Internet, cable TV, YouTube, multiple news cycles in one day, and the need for really instantaneous response. Ads and ad makers are still vital — but not nearly as much as they were just a few years ago.”

Most consumer marketers are bad at the “really instantaneous” part. Bureaucracies, long lead times, and focus groups all eat up massive amounts of time. But I think that’s because so much of advertising’s model relies on betting big on a few expensive commercials instead of many inexpensive ones - ads that get in to and out of the market really quickly. Politicians can’t waste time - or money. How would clients act if they had to get contributions from the public for their next campaign?