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I’ll take things that no longer exist for $800 Alex.

Here’s something to think about for 24 hours or so…

What things in our lives currently can we reasonably predict won’t exist in 5 years?  Here are a few that some of us have been thinking about, post your own as well.  I’ll revisit the topic in a day or two and lay out why I think extinction is closer than many of us would like to admit.

  1. Newspapers
  2. SUVs
  3. 2/3 of the Big 3
  4. Blockbuster Video
  5. Car dealerships
  6. Plastic shopping bags
  7. Landline telephones
  8. Paper checks
  9. Realtors

For some of these, it’s interesting to think about the relationship between “being an expert” and “having expertise”.  I think consumers today are looking for expertise, but could really care less about you being an expert.  I’m sure travel agents would have an interesting point-of-view on that one.

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6 comments on “I’ll take things that no longer exist for $800 Alex.”

  1. Bob Mitchell says,
    April 15th, 2008 at 12:59 pm

    Newspapers - They have survived radio, TV, cable news, google news???? I think the real answer is newspaper & web
    SUVs - Seen a Tahoe Hybrid?
    2/3 of the Big 3 -Hopefully not GM
    Blockbuster Video -If they don’t buy Circuit City
    Car dealerships -State Franchise laws?????
    Plastic shopping bags -I’m betting on bio-degradible plastic bags
    Landline telephones -yup
    Paper checks - mostly (My grandmother disagrees)
    Realtors -Tasks/ responsibilities will change- but still here

  2. jeremy morris says,
    April 15th, 2008 at 6:18 pm

    Bob, not sure I’d agree with ou on newspapers

    http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/4/new_york_times_sorry_but_if_you_don_t_quit_we_ll_have_to_fire_you

  3. Bob Mitchell says,
    April 17th, 2008 at 8:47 am

    No question newspapers will see trmendous change in their business. Many will disappear. One projection sees their disappearance by 2043; “20 years after we run out of oil”
    http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=7830218

    My argument has mostly been disagreeing with the “or” arguement. Is it newspaper “or” web? cable “or” telephone? In the end AT&T is in the cable business and Comcast is in the phone busness…the “and” solution.
    I believe the newspaper owners will use their current, significant resources to evolve their business model. i.e Many now own on-line classified ads web sites linked to their newspaper classifieds. Newspaper “and” web.

  4. jeremy morris says,
    April 17th, 2008 at 12:48 pm

    Agreed. Until it really is “or”

    http://www.longtail.com/the_long_tail/WindowsLiveWriter/
    TheENDofTHEmassmarketREcordstore_7ED6/tower%5B2%5D_2.jpg

  5. propaganda1980 says,
    April 21st, 2008 at 4:39 pm

    Bob — Interesting thoughts. Since I never got a chance to post a follow-up blog, I’ll do so here.

    On the topic of news, I think the reality is that people will always want the news; it will be up to the providers to figure out a way to deliver it in an infinite amont of platforms. The WSJ would have to exist everywhere — and anywhere. That’s the path for survival. Read sports headlines via RSS delivery while bowling on the Wii.

    Yes, seen a few Tahoe Hybrids around, kinda hard not to. The reality is, at what point are hybrids material for extinction/irrelevant? Sure, a radical thought, but if you compare auto powertrain and energy usage against the innovation happening in, well every other category, a hybrid powertrain is probably equivalent to something that was cool in 1953.

    Blockbuster Video’s death will happen even quicker if they acquire Circuit City. Curious as to what you think CC would give Blockbuster? Have you been to a CC lately? The experience is about as poor as the Rite-Aid on Mound Road. Hate to use Apple as the eternal case study; but look @ the new iPod vending machines. Who needs a retail space?

    Here’s the bit though — think of the unique and compelling user experience CC and BB could do if they cared about (or frankly, tried to learn) what their consumers wanted? A movie, music and electronics wonderland. Less about sales, more about experience. Stream concerts live in the stores, movie premieres, etc. Test out cool stuff, bring in your cool stuff. Talk to peers. A living, breathing message board. Take advantage of your only asset - the brick and mortar that your new competition can never match.

    If I can find a house (Craigslist among many), get it’s value and compare comps (Zillow), get a $750K mortgage (Lending Tree) and see pictures of my neighbors (Facebok) all online, for free - what exactly would the evolved role of the realtor be? The smart realtors are becoming lifestyle experts right now; as soon as consumers catch up, it’s game over for those not changing today.

    That’s what this thinking is all about. What are you doing to be proactive in the face of constant change? Are you doing something different now that will pay off in the future? Are you waiting on a trend or watching trigger behaviors? Are you working on the Prius in 1997 or are you building a big SUV hybrid in 2007?

    We talked about trend watching last year, now it’s about coaching them. When you hit trend mode, someone is already there.

    Thanks for reading/posting, I enjoyed it. You’ll see me lurking around. Later!

  6. Bob Mitchell says,
    April 23rd, 2008 at 12:26 pm

    Frankly I also don’t see the Blockbuster/ CC thing as viable. I offered it mostly to demonstrate that its not a linear future. imo, creativity in crafting new businesses we have not contemplated will win. I also agree that hybrids are not long term, but consider a Tahoe with a front and rear Volt powertarin? or the hydrogen powertrain in GM buses. Creativity, initiative wins long term.

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